Bitcoin up or down: the historical record
Daily BTC closes for the past year, turned into a simple question traders ask every day: how often does Bitcoin actually go up?
Data updated September 12, 2026 · Source: CoinGecko daily closes (UTC). Snapshots refresh once per day.
4 consecutive down days
53.3%
Last 30 days
52.2%
Last 90 days
48.1%
Last 365 days
One year of daily moves
Bar height = size of the daily move. Green = up day, red = down day.
After N consecutive down days, what happened next?
Conditional frequencies from the past year. Sample sizes get thin fast—treat anything under 10 samples as anecdote, not edge.
| Consecutive down days | Samples | Next day down | Next day up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 188 | 54% | 46% |
| 2 | 100 | 54% | 46% |
| 3 | 53 | 45% | 55% |
| 4 | 23 | 35% | 65% |
| 5 | 8 | 38% | 63% |
| 6 | 3 | 33% | 67% |
What if you bet the same direction every day?
Pick a start point and a direction. Flat 1-unit stake per day, filled at the price below—wins pay 1 unit. This is the math every short-timeframe market maker already knows.
90
Trading days
52.2%
Win rate
+2.0
Profit (units)
+4.4%
ROI on staked
Break-even win rate at this price: 50% · Backtested on historical daily closes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Month by month
| Month | Days | Up days | Avg. daily move | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 11 | 36.4% | -0.11% | -1.4% |
| 2026-08 | 31 | 58.1% | +0.61% | +19.9% |
| 2026-07 | 31 | 54.8% | +0.25% | +7.7% |
| 2026-06 | 30 | 33.3% | -0.65% | -18.4% |
| 2026-05 | 31 | 51.6% | -0.08% | -2.7% |
| 2026-04 | 30 | 60% | +0.44% | +13.6% |
| 2026-03 | 31 | 51.6% | +0.07% | +1.2% |
| 2026-02 | 28 | 35.7% | -0.77% | -21.7% |
| 2026-01 | 31 | 41.9% | -0.14% | -4.8% |
| 2025-12 | 31 | 48.4% | -0.07% | -2.7% |
| 2025-11 | 30 | 43.3% | -0.56% | -16.1% |
| 2025-10 | 31 | 51.6% | -0.15% | -5.3% |
| 2025-09 | 19 | 50% | -0.05% | -1% |
How to read this
Short-term Bitcoin direction is close to a coin flip, which is exactly why micro-timeframe 'up or down' markets are hard to beat after fees. The edge, when it exists, shows up in weeks and months—not in the next hourly candle.
For research and education only. Not investment advice.